A high-stakes capital race has redefined the prediction market. Kalshi’s $300 million raise at a $5 billion valuation positioned it as the most valuable CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange in history. The firm’s expansion into 140 countries and growing list of macro and cultural markets seemed to cement its place as the global leader.
Around the same time, Polymarket, Kalshi’s on-chain rival, secured $2 billion in backing from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and announced plans to re-enter the US market through a newly licensed exchange framework.
This marks the first true duel between regulated infrastructure and crypto-native liquidity in the prediction market.
Polymarket goes institutional
The ICE investment transformed Polymarket overnight from a scrappy decentralized platform into a heavyweight competitor with Wall Street credentials. ICE’s commitment gives the firm an implied valuation of $8 billion and makes it the first bloc
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