Google will spend approximately $90 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Meta has committed $65 billion. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are collectively spending over $300 billion. Apple, meanwhile, is spending just $12.7 billion on capital expenditure for the entire fiscal year. The conventional narrative is that Apple is losing the AI race. But what if Apple has decided not to run in that race at all?
The evidence for Apple’s apparent failure is easy to assemble. Siri remains a punchline. The promised AI-powered assistant has been delayed until 2026. Analysts have called the company’s AI strategy a “disaster” and warned it is one to two years behind competitors. Meanwhile, Apple sits on more than $130 billion in cash, watching others burn through capital at unprecedented rates.
But consider an alternative reading. The foundation model market is beginning to exhibit classic signs of commoditisation. When one company introduces agentic capabilities, the
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