Beyond an avenue for making speculative bets, prediction markets can offer an additional glimpse into the prevailing sentiment surrounding a particular matter.
You wouldn’t have to look particularly far to see that worries surrounding a potential recession in the United States have skyrocketed as of late. President Trump’s sudden imposition of previously-announced tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada on March 3 caused a crash in the cryptocurrency market, as well as a general selloff of risk assets.
Prediction markets reacted accordingly. On March 4, two of the most popular platforms — Kalshi and Polymarket, marked a noted uptick in users who answered affirmatively to the query of whether or not a recession will occur this year.
Prediction markets show increased odds of a recession
Over the course of March 4, international prediction betting market platform Polymarket saw the odds of a recession in 2025 happening increase from 27% to 44% — although by press time, t
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