As the crypto market matures, Bitcoin’s spot price is increasingly influenced by global geopolitical events, regulatory changes, traditional financial market movements, and other relevant macroeconomic events. However, the growing Bitcoin derivatives market also shapes Bitcoin’s price movements, albeit a smaller one.
Futures and options contracts are particularly insightful for predicting Bitcoin’s future movements as they reflect the sentiment of a sophisticated market segment. However, merely looking at the volume of derivatives contracts or open interest doesn’t provide a comprehensive view of market sentiment. Instead, considering more nuanced metrics, such as the Bitcoin futures annualized three-month rolling basis, is also essential.
The Bitcoin futures annualized three-month rolling basis measures the difference between the current (spot) price of Bitcoin and the price of a futures contract for Bitcoin that expires in 3 months. This difference is calculated on a rolling
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