It turns out Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with nearly 90% accuracy, according to a Dune dashboard compiled by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough.
McCullough studied Polymarket’s historical data and removed markets with probabilities above 90% or below 10% after outcomes were already known but not yet settled, to keep the analysis accurate, according to a Dune dashboard summary.
Polymarket slightly but consistently overestimates event probabilities across most ranges, potentially due to biases like acquiescence bias, herd mentality, low liquidity, and participant preference for high-risk bets, McCullough’s research found.
Longer-term markets, ones that ask bettors to consider an event far-out, look more accurate because they include many outcomes that are clearly unlikely, making predictions easier, McCullough explained in an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog.
McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a
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