Since it’s pretty clear we’ve now seen this cycle’s bull market high, I’ve created an updated halving-cycle model built on four Bitcoin cycles.
The model projects a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026 after a 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle high.
Inside the halving-cycle framework
My last model correctly marked both the 2021 and 2025 top timeframes. The new framework, “Akiba Cycle Model v2,” combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV).
Bitcoin halving cycle price movements
It breaks the cycle into three linked components: drawdown from a bull-market high to the subsequent cycle low, the number of days from a halving to that low, and the recovery multiple from the low into the next halving.
The drawdown and timing components produced smaller historical errors than the recovery leg. That recovery leg drove the largest miss in its out-of-sample test.
The model starts from an empirical pattern in prior
We współpracy z: https://cryptoslate.com/new-bitcoin-cycle-data-projects-btc-will-lose-half-its-value-before-december/
