A three-year stress test of Strategy (MSTR) suggests the company could survive an extreme market downturn, although common shareholders would face significant losses, according to Bitcoin-focused author and market commentator Adam Livingston.
The model assumed a severe scenario in which Bitcoin falls 55% from $59,100 to $26,600 within six months, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets remain closed, and the company is forced to sell BTC to meet its obligations.
Brutal MSTR Stress Test
The starting assumptions included MSTR stock at $87.64, total Bitcoin holdings of 847,363 BTC, cash reserves of $1.4 billion, CEBE of 138,161 sats per share, and a claim ratio of 41.5%. As BTC prices decline in the model, fixed-dollar senior claims rise sharply in Bitcoin terms. Senior claims increase from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC, while the claim ratio climbs to 96.7%.
The analysis shows that common equity Bitcoin would fall from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE drops from 138,161 sats per share to 7,8
We współpracy z: https://cryptopotato.com/mstrs-bitcoin-per-share-gets-annihilated-in-extreme-bear-case-analyst/
