Bitcoin (BTC) held a crucial support level at $112,500 overnight, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its April to July rally. However, the rebound has been muted so far, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech later Friday.
Last month, the market bounced sharply from this same Fibonacci level, and a similar move could unfold if Powell signals a more dovish stance, hinting at faster and deeper rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, followed by another before year-end.
One analyst examining options data estimates that bitcoin could experience a 2% price swing on Powell’s speech.
A dovish tone from Powell could bring a strong bounce in ether (ETH), as the cryptocurrency hovers above its uptrend line connecting April and early August lows.
Derivatives Positioning
Global futures open interest (OI) in BTC and ETH has increased by 1% in the past 24 hours, s
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