Bitcoin’s fourth halving has sparked speculation about significant price surges, but Glassnode, an analytics firm, advises that investors should “ground expectations” based on historical data.
The Bitcoin halving happened less than a week ago, leading to a 50% reduction in supply inflation, increasing the issuance scarcity.
Glassnode Says Fourth Halving is Different
The halving has historically impacted price performance. However, Glassnode highlights diminishing returns and shallower drawdowns seen over time due to the market’s growth and capital flow requirements.
Glassnode observes diminishing returns comparing epochs, with the second showing a price increase of 5,315% and a maximum drawdown of 85%. Meanwhile, the fourth epoch saw a more modest 569% increase and a 77% drawdown. The report notes similar price performance across the last three cycles before the halving, with increases ranging from approximately 200% to 300%.
However, the current cycle is different, with bitcoi
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