A new paper from Google Quantum AI has sharply reduced the estimated hardware required to crack elliptic-curve cryptography used by Bitcoin and much of Ethereum, moving a long-running security debate closer to market terms.
At current market prices, the quantum computing risks could affect more than $600 billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins.
The paper, co-authored by Google researchers, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake, and Stanford cryptographer Dan Boneh, says Shor’s algorithm for the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem can run with either no more than 1,200 logical qubits and 90 million Toffoli gates or no more than 1,450 logical qubits and 70 million Toffoli gates.
Google says those circuits could be executed on a superconducting, cryptographically relevant quantum computer with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in a few minutes, roughly a 20-fold reduction from prior estimates of the number of physical qubits.
Notably, Google does not say such
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