Sina—co-founder of the hedge fund 21st Capital—publicly dismantled a popular Bitcoin price model promoted by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, calling it a textbook case of data illiteracy and overfitting.
The model in question draws a close correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2—a measure of global money supply—by shifting M2 data forward by a set number of weeks, typically 10 to 12, to supposedly “predict” Bitcoin’s future price moves. Raoul Pal has used this chart to argue that macro liquidity conditions drive crypto cycles, and that the current market behavior can be forecast using monetary expansion.
Expert Torches M2-Bitcoin Correlation
But Sina, a trained data scientist who teaches data analytics at the undergraduate and graduate level, says this model collapses under scrutiny. “This is a terrible failure of not understanding overfitting,” he said in a June 24 video posted to X. “What I’m seeing doesn’t even pass the first month of a first-year d
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