Galaxy Research cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 30% as bipartisan support remains uncertain.
Senators released the first combined version of the bill, adding ethics rules, enforcement measures and changes to the GENIUS Act.
Democratic negotiators said the proposal still falls short, leaving little time to secure the votes needed before Congress’ August recess.
Galaxy Research lowered its estimated probability of the legislation passing in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% last month, citing shrinking legislative time, unresolved political disagreements and an increasingly difficult vote count in the Senate.
Combined Draft Brings Months of Negotiations Together
The newly published 616-page proposal consolidates the cryptocurrency market structure legislation previously approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees into a single package. It also incorporates several negotiated additions, including a new ethics framework, expanded law enforcement provisi
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