The 38th week of the year is historically the third-worst performing week for bitcoin, averaging a return of -2.25%. Only week 28 (-2.78%) and week 14 (-3.91%) have been weaker historically, according to Coinglass data.
This week, bitcoin is already down nearly 2%, trading around $113,000, with September’s monthly options expiry pointing to a max pain level at $110,000, according to Deribit, this could imply further downside.
Max pain refers to the strike price at which the largest number of options contracts (calls and puts) expire worthless, effectively maximizing losses for option buyers.
In addition, market enthusiasm has faded. Perpetual funding rates for bitcoin, which measure the ongoing cost of holding leveraged long or short positions in perpetual futures contracts, have dropped to 4%, one of their lowest levels in a month.
A low positive funding rate suggests reduced demand for leveraged long exposure, often signaling that speculative froth in the market has cooled.
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