The calm that has returned to the bitcoin (BTC) market may be short-lived, potentially setting the stage for a storm that could trigger significant price volatility, according to insights from the decentralized crypto on-chain options platform Derive.
Since March 12, BTC has settled in the $80K-$85K range in a consolidation typically seen after a notable directional move. Prices tanked from $100K to under $80K in preceding weeks due to several factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariffs and disappointment about the lack of new purchases in the U.S. strategic BTC reserve.
With the latest consolidation, key volatility metrics have declined, nearing monthly lows. Volatility, however, is mean-reverting, meaning the low-volatility regime could soon pave the way for price turbulence, according to Derive.
„BTC’s weekly at-the-money (ATM) volatility has dipped below 50% to 49%, approaching monthly lows of 45%. Realized volatility has also dropped from 91% at the start of the month to
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