A closely watched derivatives strategist expects Bitcoin’s next major move to begin with a violent short squeeze, only to flip into a punishing “long trap” as October opens—a sequence he argues rhymes more with late-2023 than with the euphoric blow-offs of March and December 2024.
In a thread posted on September 12 and expanded over the weekend, analyst Nik Patel (@cointradernik) said the current positioning backdrop “is less like March and Dec ’24 crossovers and more like Dec ’23,” warning that the market is set up for a “multi-week whipsaw going into early/mid Oct.” He added a specific liquidation map: “Give me $1.5bn in shorts liqs on the weekly and then $2.8bn of long liqs into Oct 7th pls.”
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— Nik (@cointradernik) September 12, 2025
What Is Different This Time For Bitcoin?
What makes this setup different, in his view, is the balance between spot and derivatives flows and the breadth of basis trades. “Spot vol as
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