Key Insights:
Economists projected 88% odds of a higher Bitcoin price.
The sentiment index fell to extreme fear territory.
Analysts split on short-term market direction.
Economist Timothy Peterson said on Saturday that Bitcoin price carried an 88% probability of trading higher within 10 months. He based the estimate on a model showing that half of the past 24 months delivered positive returns. The projection placed the potential upside window around late December, despite weak sentiment.
BTC price forecast emerged as the asset traded roughly a quarter below its year-opening level. That drawdown framed the current debate over whether the cycle had already reset or remained under pressure. Market participants now weighed statistical models against deteriorating risk appetite.
Market Sentiment Diverged from Statistical Model
Peterson wrote on X that he tracked rolling two-year windows to detect inflection points. His calculation showed that 50% of monthly closes during that
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