Quick Take
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is on the brink of its most significant downward adjustment since the FTX collapse in December 2022. Newhedge forecasts a reduction of over 4% on May 9, which would mark a substantial trend shift after the Bitcoin halving. The network’s hash rate has already dropped by 10% from its peak on a seven-day moving average.
In March, CryptoSlate accurately predicted this hash rate correction, citing the anticipated disruption caused by reduced miner rewards post-halving. The delay in the correction’s onset is attributed to the elevated fees following the launch of Runes.
Despite these developments, Glassnode’s hash ribbon indicator hasn’t confirmed a miner capitulation event. This metric signals a potential Bitcoin bottom when mining expenses outweigh profits. While the convergence of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages shows an increased risk of miner capitulation, the indicator has not been triggered.
Graph showing the hash ribbon indicator
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