Bitcoin’s quantum problem is still years away, but Bernstein says 1.7 million BTC sitting in early address types could be among the most exposed if the technology ever gets there.
That includes an estimated 1.1 million BTC tied to Satoshi Nakamoto, which would matter only if quantum machines become strong enough to break today’s encryption.
Legacy Wallets In Focus
Bernstein’s view is not that Bitcoin faces a near-term collapse. The firm’s analysts describe the issue as a “manageable upgrade cycle,” not an “existential risk,” and say the danger is concentrated in older wallets and addresses that reuse public keys. Newer wallet practices, including avoiding address reuse, lower exposure.
The report also draws a line between wallet risk and mining risk. Bitcoin’s SHA-256 mining process is not seen as meaningfully vulnerable to quantum attacks, even if future machines become powerful enough to threaten some wallet signatures.
Bernstein said the most exposed a
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