Analysis of historical S&P 500 performance in U.S. presidential cycles since Bill Clinton’s second to Donald Trump’s second showed intriguing dynamics.
It starts with a decline followed by another drop in Bush’s first term during the Dot-Com Bust.
During George Bush’s second term it rose before dropping again.
Obama’s first term encountered financial crisis but recovered; his second term saw 50% rise.
During Trump’s first term, it rose 70%, dropping in 2020 but recovered soon after.
Biden’s term saw it rise 20%, the highest of 2024. Since Donald Trump resumed office on January 20, 2025, financial markets have been restless.
The S&P 500 declined 9% from its all-time high of 6, the worst start to a presidency since 2009, when the Great Financial Crisis fueled a steep recession-driven decline.
When it happened, the S&P 500 dropped over 20% in Obama’s first two months in office as the economy struggled with a banking meltdown.
SPX performance by
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