Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi spend a lot of time and money convincing regulators they’re not gambling.
Outside of the U.S. authorities are viewing prediction markets as synonymous with gambling. Taiwan, France, and now Singapore have all made moves to block users from accessing Polymarket at the ISP level, calling the prediction market platform an unlicensed gambling operation of some sort.
Prediction markets are investment tools, where traders take a position on the outcome to a question.
Parties and counter-parties have differing opinions on how to price the the competing sides of the question, and the market engages in price discovery. Should the event occur, each share will be worth $1, or $0 if the event fails to materialize.
This isn’t a game of chance. Prediction markets aren’t considered gambling (in the U.S.) because they are designed as tools for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities, rather than games of luck. The house doesn’t set the odds,
We współpracy z: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/01/14/analysis-prediction-markets-have-a-gambling-problem
