Bitcoin (BTC) could decline to as low as $38,500 by October 2026 if historical bear market patterns continue to repeat, according to an analysis by TradingShot.
The forecast is based on Bitcoin’s behavior during previous bear market bottoms and its relationship with long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs).
The analysis, shared in a TradingView post on June 15, suggests Bitcoin’s current bear cycle may not be complete despite the asset trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,300.
According to TradingShot, every major Bitcoin bear market bottom has historically formed within a lower EMA zone than the previous cycle.
Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView
The analysis shows that Bitcoin’s January 2015 bottom occurred within the 200-week EMA to 300-week EMA range.
During the 2018 bear market, the cryptocurrency again found support in the same zone before the March 2020 COVID-19 crash pushed the asset into the EMA300-400 rang
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