Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby says traders relying on Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may be leaning on a framework that no longer fits the market. In his latest analysis, Crosby argued that structural shifts in supply, institutional demand and macro liquidity now matter more than the old halving-driven playbook.
Bitcoin’s Old Cycle Playbook Is Breaking Down
Crosby’s core claim is straightforward: Bitcoin may already be trading in a different regime. Pointing to the fact that more than 20 million BTC are now in circulation, he said over 95% of the total eventual supply has already been issued, reducing the relative shock value of each new halving. Historically, halvings cut Bitcoin’s inflation rate in half and helped shape a familiar pattern of post-halving rallies, then drawdowns and recovery into the next cycle. Crosby said that pattern may now be losing force.
“Many people are looking towards the previous cycles as a potential for what Bi
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