Bitwise Asset Management is arguing that crypto’s current drawdown has the fingerprints of a cyclical low: weak prices alongside strengthening on-chain and business fundamentals, a pattern the firm says last appeared in Q1 2023 before a multi-year rally.
In its Q4 2025 “Crypto Market Review,” Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan frames the quarter as an unusually important inflection point precisely because the signals are not all moving in the same direction. “But sometimes—every once in a while—the charts are mixed,” Hougan wrote. “The last one I remember was Q1 2023. At the time, we were starting to rebound post-FTX, and the data was topsy-turvy; some up, some down, some sideways. In the two years that followed, crypto prices soared.”
Bitwise’s core claim rests on a divergence between market performance and usage metrics in Q4. The firm notes that Ethereum fell 29% over the quarter, even as Ethereum and Layer 2 transactions “soared to new a
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