Bitcoin’s familiar post-halving price story is facing a serious rethink after strategist and researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera published a lengthy analysis earlier in the week, arguing that every previous post-halving rally lined up with massive global liquidity shifts rather than the programmed reduction of new coins.
Perera contended that the relationship between halvings and price appreciation is “statistically unprovable” despite sixteen years of data.
His takeaway is blunt: liquidity, not issuance cuts, has likely guided every major bull phase, and investors may be mistaking correlation for causation.
A Liquidity Story Hiding Inside a Halving Narrative
The substance of Perera’s argument rests on one distinction: while the halving mechanism that reduces issuance is predictable and baked into Bitcoin’s code, linking it to price jumps has no statistical foundation.
“The halving mechanism is mathematically verifiable to near certainty. The causal relationship between halvi
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