With the Bitcoin (BTC) halving only hours away, analysts are at odds over whether the one-in-four-years event is already “priced in” to the crypto market.
According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, the answer is yes – but it comes with some important nuance.
The Bitcoin Halving And Efficient Markets
In a Twitter thread posted on Friday, Hougan acknowledged that the halving is both “well-known” and predictable for all market participants.
Specifically, at block 840,000, the newly created BTC attached to each Bitcoin block will fall from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, reducing its daily supply issuance by roughly 450 BTC per day.
Since this change has been programmed into the network’s code since its creation, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) would suggest that Bitcoin’s current market price should already reflect that this halving will occur.
“I think this is broadly true,” Hougan wrote. “What the EMH folks leave out, however, is that… current prices only reflect the mark
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